The UK long range January monthly forecast
January 2008 forecast
Summary: CET temperature 4.5C or 0.3C above average; rainfall 85% and sunshine 115%*
*The average January CET 1971-2000 was 4.2C, last January 7.0C, 2006 4.3C.
Issued: 31st December 2007 0900Z
Monthly summary
A rather unsettled start seems likely as low pressure pushes SE well to the south allowing a cold E-SEly flow with some wintryness for many in the north and central parts with hill snow. There's unlikely to be much precipitation in the east though. It should become milder from the SW for a time though still chilly in the north and low presure areas run across the UK; the north and east may stay rather chillier though for a time with further wintry precipitation with local gales in places in the northwest and west. As high pressure dominates more by mid month there should be some good sunny periods by day as long as any fog clears, still more unsettled in the far NW though as associated fronts affect these areas, sometimes slow moving and it may be quite wet at times on upslopes. Rather colder weather may affect the SE for a while and inland there'll be more freezing fog by night. By the middle of the third week it may well be more settled generally across much of the southern and eastern UK, but the west more unsettled as fronts try and push in with rain and possibly some wintry precipitation too.It should be reasonably dry in most eastern parts though, still with the risk of some mist low cloud & and frost at night. Pressure will probably fall again more generally during the latter part of the hird week, to give a more unsettled period with rain at times everywhere and it could become very unsettled again for a time with gales or severe gales in the north and west at times. The last week may see more settled weather returning as high pressure builds across the UK again from the west or SW, giving a quieter spell with fog and frost by night in central parts, some freezing. The west more unsettled later again as fronts push in from the west or up from the SW, possibly preceded by some sleet or snow in central parts.
After a chilly start, temperatures will be near or slightly below average on the whole for the east but near or slightly above average in the west, more especially in the far north and west but rather cold in central parts at night. Rainfall is likely to be rather below average again for most parts, especially across the east and SE but nearer average in the far NW. Sunshine may well be rather above the long term average for southern and SE areas but mainly nearer average further to the NW and winds will generally be below average speed with frost above average and snow near average for most parts, though possibly below average in the NW.
Sea temperatures staying about a degree above average for much of the northern and NW UK though nearer average in the south and east and a degree below in the SW approaches; soil temperatures will tend to be near or a little below average for most parts with soil moisture becoming rather below average for many parts but nearer average in the north west and west.
Week 1 1st-7th January
The month seems set to start with a rain band lying across eastern parts but petering out as it does so. Drier to the west though generally cloudy,with perhaps some light rain in the south west and Wales -amounts will be fairly small. Some brighter spells with a few sunny periods too especially across W Scotland and N Ireland. By the 2nd and 3rd a cold E-SE'ly flow will develop across central and eastern parts so rather cloudy in the main after early mist and low cloud lifts, a slight frost likely in Scotland and the N of England with a few icy patches about. Then mainly damp and cloudy with some sleet at times especially in the east and NE, mainly wintry in the NE and especially so over higher ground . Some moderate accumulations are possible on the N York Moors, Northumberland Hills, Cheviots etc. A band of rain affecting much of the south, possibly wintry over hills at times but any snow amounts should be relatively small if it lies. As low pressure develops to the SW and slips SE a few cloudy days with outbreaks of sleet or snow in places seems likely, in a raw E'ly wind, strong in places and possibly gale force in exposed parts. The snow may become rather persistent at times in the east with locally moderate falls on high ground especially but on lower ground in places too, drifting in the strong winds. Still cold by Friday with further outbreaks of rain, sleet or locally snow likely in the north and Midlands, perhaps locally rather heavy in places, slowly dying out as low pressure runs across the UK with gales in the west. It will become milder in the south and SW and stay cloudy with some rain at times and a lot of low cloud over hills. The rain may well be of a wintry nature in the north still especially over hills, where further accumulations are possible. Drier for a time in the east with some mist by night though wintry showers running into the NW, some rather heavy with hail and thunder. By Sunday a milder SW'ly flow developing as more rain and strong winds affect the south west and south, quite heavy in places, and again the Welsh and northern hills may see some wintryness.
Temperatures generally near average becoming colder for a while especially in the east but milder in the south by the weekend. Rainfall near average in the west but rather below average for most parts of the east and possibly some heavier falls in the NW and SW at times bringing totals above average here. Sunshine probably rather below average everywhere though closer to average in the east.
'Further monthly details for weeks 2-5 are available via our premium rate service as well as detailed forecasts for local regions or your own town/village.
(source:
http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id18.html)