[The Jester of Wibbly]

I can't see anything changing in the rules for at least another two weeks.  Boris said these restrictions are in place for 3 weeks and then it will be reviewed.

By this time they will then either extend the current restrictions further, or make them stricter.   It will take 2 or 3 weeks to see if these measures are working or not.   Nothing will change for another 2 weeks. Remember he is not trying to stop the virus, just slow it down.

I can see this going on for 4 to 6 months

[G Griffin]

I can’t help but think that the governments big u-turn from originally saying only those with ‘essential jobs’ should be working, to now saying ‘where it’s not possible to work from home’ is just a massive caveat. They’ll use this further down the line to not pay out the 80% to the self employed that they think should now be out earning.

It’s just so un-Tory like to pay out and effectively be giving people a pay rise that are working through it.

I think there’s going to be a lot of disappointed people come June/July.

How will they know that we're not out earning?

I don’t think they’ll care tbh. I don’t just mean the ones are at home won’t get paid, I mean the ones who are working also. Basically everyone they think could be working.

They’ve also left themselves wiggle room by saying there’s 5% that won’t get taken care of.

I’m not anti Tory btw, I voted for them the last 3 elections, I’m just being realistic.

Giving people 80% of their averages profit, aswell as allowing them to carry on earning thus actually making more money from the pandemic than they would normally just seems incredibly generous to me.

(Unless of course, they planned this all along to enable a mega strict lock down that bans all but essential work)

I'm not sure about that.
A lot of us have been affected by the virus and that's what the grant is for.

I agree with your last sentence though.
I think that's what is for. You get the money and there's no comebacks if there is a stricter lockdown.
A concern is, what if it goes beyond June? I don't think it'll be as generous next time.
Let's hope we don't need it.

[Missing Link]

I can't see anything changing in the rules for at least another two weeks.  Boris said these restrictions are in place for 3 weeks and then it will be reviewed.

I've read a report citing Imperial Collage London which estimates UK peak Covid-19 day as the 5th April.  If true the numbers of deaths should decrease from then.

13th April is the government's review day; it's bank holiday Easter; though I'm sure they'll have made a decision prior.

[James Styles]

I can see this going on for 4 to 6 months

Bloody hope not! It’s a nightmare

[Missing Link]

I think for the majority of sensible people it's a question of "should" I go to work and not whether they "can" or are "allowed" to  go.
There is a silent, invisible and indiscriminate killer prowling the streets of our country. It's everywhere, it's all around you now and it's sole purpose is to infect you and your loved ones- then for you and them infect others and theirs. The evidence is in your face, 24/7, humans are dropping like flies. Entire Nations are grinding to a halt like no other time in history. Our own country are building gigantic temporary mortuarys,  field hospitals etc right now! We don't even have enough medical staff, beds or machines to even remotely deal with what's about to happen and IS already happening all around us. It's there for you all to see, right now. No excuses, own the responsibility as it's yours and yours alone now.
So, if you fancy your chances for the sake of One or Two weeks extra wages, then knock yourself out.👍

You'll be off for longer than 3 or 4 weeks mate!even if 20,000 people die its way lower than 0.5% of the population.....sad but not a total disaster.......stop making out that most of us will die mate...its not helpful to anyone.....

In 2018, there were 541,589 deaths registered in England and Wales (I can't find the totals for the whole of the UK and can't be arsed to google NI and Scotland too).

So that means on a normal year we average 1489 deaths per day just in England and Wales.  (Interestingly enough I just googled to see the birth rate and we had 200,000 more births than deaths in 2018.)

I don't think some people comprehend what being part of a population that's 67 million means.

[CleanClear]

I've read a report citing Imperial Collage London which estimates UK peak Covid-19 day as the 5th April.  If true the numbers of deaths should decrease from then.

I think its largely accepted thats incorrect now.


This is not behind their paywall, interesting graph:
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

[Missing Link]

This is not behind their paywall, interesting graph:
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Cheers for the link; just reading it now.

I don't believe we can believe China's figures:

death tolls growing more quickly in Italy, Spain, the UK and US than they did in China at the same stage of the outbreak.

But maybe they are right?  China was welding people into their houses.

But there was nothing in there that gives an alternative date for a UK peak of 5th April.  Which kinda makes sense to me; that's 14 days after our lockdown; time for the virus to get a grip on those who caught it last weekend when they were in pubs and massed in parks etc.

[֍Winp®oClean֍]

I think for the majority of sensible people it's a question of "should" I go to work and not whether they "can" or are "allowed" to  go.
There is a silent, invisible and indiscriminate killer prowling the streets of our country. It's everywhere, it's all around you now and it's sole purpose is to infect you and your loved ones- then for you and them infect others and theirs. The evidence is in your face, 24/7, humans are dropping like flies. Entire Nations are grinding to a halt like no other time in history. Our own country are building gigantic temporary mortuarys,  field hospitals etc right now! We don't even have enough medical staff, beds or machines to even remotely deal with what's about to happen and IS already happening all around us. It's there for you all to see, right now. No excuses, own the responsibility as it's yours and yours alone now.
So, if you fancy your chances for the sake of One or Two weeks extra wages, then knock yourself out.👍

You'll be off for longer than 3 or 4 weeks mate!even if 20,000 people die its way lower than 0.5% of the population.....sad but not a total disaster.......stop making out that most of us will die mate...its not helpful to anyone.....

Oh, I know I'll be off for more than 3 to 4 weeks Daz, the point being- is the little bit of extra wage you can gain just now worth the risk of catching it?
People die all the time, however, the world doesn't grind to halt within weeks because of flu! Statistics regarding normal death rates are meaningless. You should be worried.

[andyM]

As of tomorrow im starting my new job:
as an Essential Exterior Maintenance Business   

[CleanClear]

But there was nothing in there that gives an alternative date for a UK peak of 5th April.  Which kinda makes sense to me; that's 14 days after our lockdown; time for the virus to get a grip on those who caught it last weekend when they were in pubs and massed in parks etc.

I posted the info a couple of days ago. Imperial College report suggested a peak on 5th April with 260 deaths. We had 260 deaths two days a go i think, that dropped by 50 yesterday to about 210. See what todays figures are but the guy who gave the info the the Commons Comittee has posted some other info here:
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928

[Missing Link]

Statistics regarding normal death rates are meaningless.

They do matter; I was reading a statistician's view on how we can work out how many people actually died from Covid-19 and annual death tolls will be needed.

Why?

Well people can die WITH covid-19 and not necessarily because of it.  There'll also be a lot of people who die without Covid-19, but died as a consequence of not being able to receive proper treatment (these are still Covid-19 victims).  And it's also difficult to know what people actually died of.

So the most accurate way to work out death totals - at some point in the future - is to average some previous years death totals and compare them over the same period when Covid-19 was killing the UK population.

[Missing Link]

But there was nothing in there that gives an alternative date for a UK peak of 5th April.  Which kinda makes sense to me; that's 14 days after our lockdown; time for the virus to get a grip on those who caught it last weekend when they were in pubs and massed in parks etc.

I posted the info a couple of days ago. Imperial College report suggested a peak on 5th April with 260 deaths. We had 260 deaths two days a go i think, that dropped by 50 yesterday to about 210. See what todays figures are but the guy who gave the info the the Commons Comittee has posted some other info here:
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928

Interesting link and comments, cheers, keep posting them.

Today's death rate was 207:



Do you think it's possible it's peaked already? 

[CleanClear]

Do you think it's possible it's peaked already?

What makes me think it hasn't is the way they where talking at todays briefing and also they changed the way they reports the statistics now so there could be a blip from that. Need a few more days to really tell i think but i can't see anything  anywhere to suggest we won't be headed on the same track as Spain, Italy etc... Bear in mind i know there has been lots said about Italy having an ageing population but also they only locked down after 800 deaths ? No sure about Spain.

[֍Winp®oClean֍]

Statistics regarding normal death rates are meaningless.

They do matter; I was reading a statistician's view on how we can work out how many people actually died from Covid-19 and annual death tolls will be needed.

Why?

Well people can die WITH covid-19 and not necessarily because of it.  There'll also be a lot of people who die without Covid-19, but died as a consequence of not being able to receive proper treatment (these are still Covid-19 victims).  And it's also difficult to know what people actually died of.

So the most accurate way to work out death totals - at some point in the future - is to average some previous years death totals and compare them over the same period when Covid-19 was killing the UK population.

Meaningless in regards to the fact that they will not change the risk, danger and results of covid19 now and in the next few weeks.

[Missing Link]

Meaningless in regards to the fact that they will not change the risk, danger and results of covid19 now and in the next few weeks.

Yes, I agree.

I think the situation is going to remain pretty much as it is - with regards the lockdown - till mid April.

[Missing Link]

but i can't see anything  anywhere to suggest we won't be headed on the same track as Spain, Italy etc...

I don't think we will.  We don't have close family ties like they do over there with multiple generations living and eating together. 

And silly as it sounds, we don't do the cheek kissing thing either.

[G Griffin]

but i can't see anything  anywhere to suggest we won't be headed on the same track as Spain, Italy etc...

I don't think we will.  We don't have close family ties like they do over there with multiple generations living and eating together. 

And silly as it sounds, we don't do the cheek kissing thing either.

They don't have as many Tesco store either.

[Missing Link]

but i can't see anything  anywhere to suggest we won't be headed on the same track as Spain, Italy etc...

I don't think we will.  We don't have close family ties like they do over there with multiple generations living and eating together. 

And silly as it sounds, we don't do the cheek kissing thing either.

They don't have as many Tesco store either.

I thought you were teaching your little lad plurals?

[G Griffin]

but i can't see anything  anywhere to suggest we won't be headed on the same track as Spain, Italy etc...

I don't think we will.  We don't have close family ties like they do over there with multiple generations living and eating together. 

And silly as it sounds, we don't do the cheek kissing thing either.

They don't have as many Tesco store either.

I thought you were teaching your little lad plurals?

Liar!
I said I'd teach you. You spotted that ones that I set for you.
Well done.

[Smudger]

Excuse the language.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BA9eTXwGIk

Darran